12/8/2023 0 Comments Engine oil viscosity![]() This means that vehicles that could use SAE 0W-16 are more likely to be service filled with that grade during a dealer based service.įor maintenance outside of dealer control, consumers could use 3 rd party service providers or carry out oil changes themselves. ![]() With a growing number of OEMs pushing customer subscriptions, we may see more dealer-based car servicing. Car maintenance is also an important factor to consider. ![]() We are seeing some movement by OEMs, such as Toyota, to suggest SAE 0W-16 in more vehicles during this model year but it lags behind the recommendations being made for lower viscosity in Japan. This could change if OEMs build more engines that are designed for SAE 0W-16 and allow this grade in more of today’s engines, however this so far seems unlikely. This has a knock on effect in that, even if we look out ten years, volumes of fuel economy grades such as SAE 0W-16 could remain relatively small. Although the North American market is likely to transition quite quickly to the new ILSAC GF-6 standard, in the main, only a small segment of new vehicles will use the lowest viscosity grade, SAE 0W-16. ILSAC GF-6B enables new fuel economy viscosity grades below SAE 0W-20 to be introduced with its own certification mark. And, from May 1 2020, oil marketers could claim ILSAC GF-6A/API SP or GF-6B/API Resource Conserving (RC) and display the appropriate API certification mark. From January 1 2020, pre-registrations opened for the new, long awaited, API gasoline engine oil standard ILSAC GF-6. New specifications are another influencing factor and always a major topic of discussion in industry. In most cases an SAE XW-20 recommendation is replacing SAE 5W-30 and thicker oil requirements. Clearly the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), will exacerbate this situation and US light-duty sales in May 2020 were down more than 30% year on year.Įstimates will vary, but annual retirement of around 4% of the 270 million vehicles is reasonable and as the vehicle parc churns so do the viscosity grade recommendations. This means the latest new gasoline engine oil recommendations for the lowest viscosities, makes up a smaller part of the total car parc. With a car population estimated at some 270 million vehicles, this trend for increased used car sales will drive up the average car age as new sales try to push lower viscosities forward. New cars generally use lower viscosities and therefore vehicle population age is one factor that impacts viscosity grade trends. In North America in 2019, while new light-duty vehicle sales were down slightly at just over 17 million, sales of used cars hit a new record of 40.4 million. On the surface this might seem straightforward but, since there are a wide range of factors that can influence them, these predictions are in reality very complex. Not surprising, since they are critical factors when supply planning for base stocks and viscosity modifiers, which means it is really important to get them right. Of all the lubricant-related questions Infineum receives, those concerning future SAE viscosity grade trends are some of the most common.
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